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Forex: Will the ECB Decision Set Off EURUSD, EURGBP Trades?

Forex: Will the ECB Decision Set Off EURUSD, EURGBP Trades?

2014-01-09 01:52:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The ECB is top event risk in the coming 24 hours, but further easing is a low probability

• Where the euro is most 'oversold' - perhaps EURGBP - a hold on policy can offer a recovery

EURUSD sets a different tone where the dollar has been reinforced by the FOMC minutes and looks to NFPs

Market conditions change, and our strategy should reflect those changes. We have coded the DailyFX-Plus strategiesfor Breakout, Range and Momentum to adapt to these market shifts.

FX traders that are sitting on their hands and waiting for big 'risk' swings to present easy trade setups are missing a more proactive theme. The EURUSD is at the center of a divergent monetary policy view. This past session, the FOMC minutes and ADP payrolls report bolster fortified the reality of the Fed's Taper. And, with a growing level of certainty, event risk like Friday's NFPs will work its amplitude by establishing pace. In the coming session, the Euro will take the wheel back with a closely watched ECB rate decision. Further easing to follow November's rate cut is a low probability, but policy bearings can still support trades on pairs like EURUSD, EURGBP and EURAUD. We talk about active fundamental setups in today's Forex Trading Video.

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