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Forex: 2014 Forecasts for the Majors

Forex: 2014 Forecasts for the Majors

2013-12-21 02:40:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The top themes to watch in 2014 are the consistency of risk appetite and competitive monetary policy

• Where the Pound may be overextended in its rate forecast, the Dollar and Aussie are undervalued

• A 'cleansing fire' in risk is highly likely next year - a boon to the Dollar and threat to Yen crosses

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With 2013 coming to a close, it is time to lay out expectations for the new year. There are a lot of variables and scenarios, but general risk trends and relative monetary policy regimes will likely dominate the FX market. Those two bigger themes present considerable opportunity for the spectrum of currencies. For the Dollar, the Taper alters the perception of unlimited stimulus from both a devalued dollar and investor sentiment perspective. At the same time, the Euro is expected to flip positions with the greenback as the ECB contemplates a stimulus expansion. And, the Japanese yen is perhaps the most extreme with a massive upgrade to its open-ended stimulus program virtually guaranteed; though the further the crosses rise, the greater the risk of a massive carry deleveraging. We look at all of the majors in this 2014 Trading Video outlook.

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