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Forex: Dollar Destined for Breakout Next Week, But Trend?

Forex: Dollar Destined for Breakout Next Week, But Trend?

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The November NFPs has altered Taper expectations, but it didn't rally the USD or sink the S&P 500

• A seasonal blanket on volatility and complacency in trend is a hefty headwind to trade development

• In the week ahead, a sizable risk trend is less likely than a USDollar breakout

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Not only did risk trends not tumble on a strong US employment showing last week as Taper fears grew corporeal, but the USDollar wouldn't even break from a 12-day, 70-point range. There were plenty of key fundamental themes stirred this past week and a dense round of event risk ahead, but catalysts only ignite dry powder. With only two full trading weeks left to the year and a disturbing comfort in long-standing complacency, it is growing increasingly difficult to mount serious market-wide trends. That said, the data is still more than enough for bouts of volatility, and there are more than a few trade opportunities on this scale. We discuss the market conditions ahead and the trade opportunities to look heading into next week in the weekned Trading Video.

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