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Forex: Why Isn't AUDUSD at 1.0000 after NFPs Rally, Aussie 3Q CPI?

Forex: Why Isn't AUDUSD at 1.0000 after NFPs Rally, Aussie 3Q CPI?

2013-10-23 01:53:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• Markets interpreted NFPs as a QE3 supportive and thereby a risk appetite driver

• Despite the 'risk on' theme and solid 3Q Aussie CPI figures, AUDUSD's momentum was restrained

• In Wednesday's session, risk trends and the BoE minutes will highlight GBPUSD at 1.6250

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The September NFPs data rallied risk trends while a better-than-expected Australian 3Q CPI figure supported RBA rate hike hopes. So, why isn't AUDUSD closing in on parity? Looking more closely at the US labor statistics, the unemployment rate hit a 2008 low and the headline miss was modest - hardly a reading to ensure a long-term Taper delay alone. For the Aussie data, avoiding a soft inflation reading pushes back fears of further cuts; but it does little to move forward imminent hikes. These fundamental developments carry different implications depending on the assumptions they are applied to. What assumptions are there for the upcoming BoE minutes with the GBPUSD facing a multi-year technical resistance? We discuss these themes in Today's Forex Video.

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