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Forex: Dollar and Stocks Look to Risk Trends, Taper Timing for Trend

Forex: Dollar and Stocks Look to Risk Trends, Taper Timing for Trend

2013-10-19 00:58:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• We head into a new week with a questionable 'risk on' rally and mid-week NFP release

• A bull trend for the S&P 500 in the wake of the debt crisis relief is poorly supported

• NFPs can tip the boat on risk trends and revive the discussion of the eventual FOMC Taper

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We will head into the new trading week with a strong but uneven risk trend and the burden of heavy event risk. The resolution of the US Government debt ceiling impasse found the S&P 500 rallying and the dollar suffering an painful collapse, but the consistency of this tempting trend has little backing. A simultaneous rally for the benchmark 'risk' asset and tumble for the favored reserve currency seems like a strong cue for meaningful return of investor optimism, yet other markets won't throw in with this move. If there isn't a fundamental cue to rally sentiment around this week, the sharp drives will turn into shaper reversal. Key to this equation will be the Tuesday NFPs. We discuss this important transitional position with trade scenarios in the Weekend Trading Video.

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