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Forex: How Long will AUDUSD, S&P 500, Treasury Rally Last Post Debt Deal?

Forex: How Long will AUDUSD, S&P 500, Treasury Rally Last Post Debt Deal?

2013-10-18 01:20:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The full stand down from the US debt ceiling standoff spurred the S&P 500 to record highs

• Other measures of risk appetite were decidedly more reserved and the dollar tumbled

• This reaction to a key fundamental development looks a lot like the FOMC response - a reversal

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Is a move to record highs for the S&P 500 evidence of a renewed appetite for yield and risk from the broader markets? The dollar's sharp drop this session in the wake of the debt deal - contradicting an expected 'relief rally' - seems to reinforce a strong speculative drive. However, there are many breaks from this theme - including tepid performance from global equities and other benchmarks. This situation looks very similar to the circumstances surrounding the FOMC rate decision a month ago, where an initial spurt of volatility for stocks and dollar selling were quickly reversed. Do we have the same situation here, or have we passed a threshold for doubt that draws out fresh bullish appetite? We discuss this critical, medium-term trade determinant in today's Forex Trading Video.

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