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Forex: Optimism of Debt Deal May Curb Risk Run, Bolster Dollar

Forex: Optimism of Debt Deal May Curb Risk Run, Bolster Dollar

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• US lawmakers continue to debate a debt deal, but a resolution is still the most likely outcome

• Equities show considerable confidence in a favorable outcome - diminishing a possible 'relief rally'

• If both risk trends and the dollar climb on an 11th hour save, the currency may have further to run

Sign up for John’s email distribution list,here.

Despite the market's optimism, US policymakers were unable to resolve the US debt ceiling impasse. Looking at the dramatic rebound and positive close of the S&P 500 Monday, market participants are still confident it will be resolved. A deal is the most likely outcome - as the alternative could be disastrous for the US on many levels - but pre-positioning could undermine the bullish reaction for risk benchmarks if it is indeed realized. The US dollar may be better positioning for the short-term response to a deal - or at the very least it could complicate what many believe are straightforward trade setups like AUDUSD or EURUSD. In today's video, we cover this difficult theme along with other volatility-inducing event risk (UK CPI and New Zealand CPI).

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