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Forex: S&P 500 Marks Critical Break, Will the Dollar Surge?

Forex: S&P 500 Marks Critical Break, Will the Dollar Surge?

2013-10-08 22:43:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• A long-overdue breakdown of the S&P 500's bull trend has set the market on edge for risk aversion

• The slip in US equities, however, has not immediately translated into delevegaring in other assets

• Preference for the dollar or yen in the risk theme depends on the 'intensity' of sentiment

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The S&P 500 marked a serious technical break of 2013 support...and yet the US Dollar was virtually unmoved on the day. What does it take to reactivate the greenback's safe haven appeal? Is it lost? While the technical move from the benchmark equity index was important, it does not yet speak to a full-scale flight from risk. Not only is the slump in stocks tentative, we have not seen the contagion jump readily to other markets. And, to override the concerns of a debt crisis diverting capital away from US assets, we need to see fear amplified to prioritize liquidity above all else. We discuss the dollar's relationship to risk trends, what to watch for and how to trade on theme in today's Forex Strategy Video.

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