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Forex: Post-FOMC Dollar and S&P 500 Runs Cool Quickly, Risk Reversal

Forex: Post-FOMC Dollar and S&P 500 Runs Cool Quickly, Risk Reversal

2013-09-20 01:58:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

• The 'surprise' element of No Taper seems to have passed quickly

• Risk positioning is still acutely sensitive to the premium vs yield imbalance

• A move to deleverage is still a tremendous risk - and not even more an afront to monetary policy

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Rather than find a hearty US equity and 'risk on' rally in the markets the day after the Fed shocked the majority of traders by holding off the Taper, we have found hesitation. The S&P 500 put in for a mild correction while the USDollar posted a sizable rebound in a price development historically associated to reversals. While there is still Taper premium that can be worked off for the market, playing down a moderation in stimulus is also a vote on risk trends. With the knowledge that support will inevitably be moderated and backdrop investment conditions have not materially improved; we may be seeing the true salt of sentiment trends. In today's video, we discuss how reversals are a material threat - though we should keep the powder dry until that fear erupts.

Find out what event risk can threaten the trade setups discussed in today's video with the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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