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Forex: Risk Trends and Taper Outlook to Decide AUDUSD, S&P 500, EURJPY

Forex: Risk Trends and Taper Outlook to Decide AUDUSD, S&P 500, EURJPY

2013-09-10 03:11:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • A bearish USDollar break and S&P 500 rally suggests the markets are under a common theme: risk trends
  • Yet, establishing a position that further exposes risk ahead of an expected Fed Taper is dubious
  • Strong anti-dollar, yen cross and general risk-based trends should be questioned

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We have sought out an underlying capital flow trend to guide the market to a lasting trend for some time. Have we seen a risk-based move take root with a key dollar and equity break move early this week? With the USDollar marking a tentative trendline breakdown and S&P 500 rallying back above 1,665, we are seeing the regular cast of speculative drives tipping the scales towards the traditional 'risk on' theme. Yet, as consistent as this move seems, we still have a problem with market conditions that tend towards congestion and a countdown to event risk that threatens current risk exposure - much less the adoption of more. In today's video, we discuss the moves by the Dollar, equities and yen crosses to weigh trade potential.

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