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  • here we go - starting right now
  • SEC Chair Gensler: - Working with Congress on crypto would help - A large number of crypto investors could be harmed
  • Pre-FOMC US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
  • The big question is whether the Fed announces taper tomorrow or whether they punt that announcement to the November rate decision, waiting for employment data to improve to the point of ‘significant further progress. More market update from @JStanleyFX :
  • SEC Chair Gensler: - The market is in a better position to absorb global shocks - Securities rules give the SEC great power over crypto
  • feels like we haven't had one of these in quite a while Pre-FOMC Price Action Setups, starting right at 1pm, top of the hour 1. USD PA setups 2. Evergrande worries 3. Stonks - fly or die?
  • That all said, staying patient and not chasing is prudent here imo. Tomorrow will likely be better for assessing short-term directional bias (China markets open again following holiday, post-FOMC).
  • Also, S&P Global put out a report overnight that said China would likely step in to curb “far-reaching contagion” re: Evergrande. The House is scheduled to vote on a stopgap funding bill Tuesday, which might be alleviating some investor angst around the debt ceiling as well.
  • Encouraging we recoiled higher off yesterday’s closing level. Could the pre-FOMC drift be at work? Markets were priced for potential hawkish shift and increased odds of taper timeline announcement. Perhaps seeing an unwind of that in light of recent market developments.
  • Join @JStanleyFX at 13:00 EST/17:00 GMT for a webinar on trading price action. Register here:
Forex: Stocks, Yen Crosses, AUDUSD at Risk of Collapse on NFPs

Forex: Stocks, Yen Crosses, AUDUSD at Risk of Collapse on NFPs

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • With only two-weeks left before the September FOMC meeting, August NFPs are critical Taper cue
  • The basic formula for market reaction: steady or strong data boosts Taper risk and spurs risk aversion
  • While there are many trade options for this event risk, I prefer AUDUSD, AUDJPY and GBPUSD

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

In recent months, the US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report has generated greater volatility for the markets. With less than two weeks before the Fed has to decide Taper, this release is key. And, the response from the markets will likely reflect that. There are many nuances to the data and how far the markets have come to pricing in the Taper, but the potential in risk trends necessitates a simple equation to interpret this meaningful event. Stable or strong jobs numbers reinforce a September Taper which in turn undermines the hold out risk-assets built on leverage (equities, carry, etc) and leads to a market-wide risk move. In today's video, we discuss this formula, what the alternative scenario would look like and my top trade setups.

Expect breakouts? Use the DailyFX Breakout 2 strategy to signal or confirm setups!

Find out what event risk can threaten the trade setups discussed in today's video with the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.