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EURUSD Volatility Disappoints, AUDUSD Tempts, Risk Measures Extreme

EURUSD Volatility Disappoints, AUDUSD Tempts, Risk Measures Extreme

2012-08-15 01:43:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Those hoping the heavy round of European event risk (GDP, investor sentiment and Greek bond auction) could shake volatility to life were let down once again. Though the fundamental backdrop for the Euro and global financial markets continues to deteriorate, speculators have shown themselves unwilling to relent on hope for external support or miraculous recovery in growth and returns. In the meantime, we find the measures of activity, risk and conviction are hitting fresh extremes that the contrarian trader recognizes as a sign that a return to norms will likely have a specific direction attached to it. AUDUSD and NZDUSD have started to make conspicuous declines - meaningful only because the conditions surrounding it are so extremely quiet. What can we expect from these moves? Is this a leading push for something bigger?

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