Yen May Fall As Net Long Positions Spike

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 62.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.66 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Apr 24 when USDJPY traded near 109.82. The number of traders net-long is 13.0% higher than yesterday and 19.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 31.5% lower than yesterday and 34.8% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.