US Dollar Forecast to Continue Lower versus Japanese Yen

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USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 72.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.58 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jan 09 when USDJPY traded near 117.525; price has moved 7.6% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.7% higher than yesterday and 8.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.6% higher than yesterday and 8.1% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias.