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US Dollar Outlook Bearish versus Yen

US Dollar Outlook Bearish versus Yen

2012-04-05 15:25:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
ssi_usd-jpy_body_Picture_11.png, US Dollar Outlook Bearish versus Yen

USDJPY – In the past two months we have argued enthusiastically in favor of US Dollar strength against the Japanese Yen and a lasting USDJPY bottom. Yet the most recent shift in FX options and futures sentiment, and clear historical Japanese Yen patterns pointed to a short-term JPY reversal. The next question is obvious: how far do we think the USDJPY could go before resuming its broader reversal?

Retail trading crowds are growing progressively net-long the USDJPY, and until we see a break in this trend we’ll hesitate to call for a resumption of broader USDJPY rallies. Does that mean we’ll call for sharp declines? Not necessarily. Given recent consolidation patterns, we see little reason for a major break lower.

How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the SSI via e-mail and other reports from author David Rodríguez, e-mail subject line “Distribution List” to drodriguez@dailyfx.com; Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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