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Crowds Sell into Loonie Advance – They Might be Right

Crowds Sell into Loonie Advance – They Might be Right

2012-09-06 15:26:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Share:
ssi_usd-cad_body_Picture_2.png, Crowds Sell into Loonie Advance – They Might be Right

Retail trading crowds remain aggressively long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Canadian Dollar, and such one-sided sentiment warns that the USDCAD may continue to trade at or near fresh lows.

According to our FXCM Execution Desk sample, there are more than 4 retail traders long USDCAD for every one that is short. Traders have been consistently net-long since the pair crossed below C$1.0100, and there’s little reason to predict any important reversal.

Yet low volatility across US Dollar pairs suggests that the USDCAD may continue to hold near key multi-month lows of C$0.9840. We see poor reward/risk on fresh US Dollar shorts against the Canadian Dollar at these levels and may in fact look for shifts in retail sentiment as an opportunity to get long USDCAD.

How do we interpret and trade with the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, send a message with subject line “Distribution List” to drodriguez@dailyfx.com; Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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