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Canadian Dollar Forecast Cautiously Bullish

Canadian Dollar Forecast Cautiously Bullish

2012-03-15 16:25:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Share:
ssi_usd-cad_body_Picture_16.png, Canadian Dollar Forecast Cautiously Bullish

USDCAD – The US Dollar refuses to break lower against the similarly resilient Canadian Dollar, giving us pause in our earlier calls for USDCAD weakness. Trading crowds have remained net-long the USD versus its Canadian counterpart since the pair failed at C$1.0300 in January and have consistently added to those long positions.

The number of traders long exceeds the level of shorts by 2.36 to 1. In most circumstances we would take this as a fairly strong contrarian signal that the pair could continue its declines. Yet caution is advised as the USDCAD has failed to stay below key support at C$ 0.9900.

We remain cautiously bearish, but the Crude Oil price-correlated Canadian Dollar may need a sharp rally in commodity prices to force a larger break higher (USDCAD lower).

How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the SSI via e-mail and other reports from author David Rodríguez, e-mail subject line “Distribution List” to drodriguez@dailyfx.com

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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