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Canadian Dollar Outlook Unclear

Canadian Dollar Outlook Unclear

2011-09-01 15:15:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Share:
ssi_usd-cad_body_Picture_10.png, Canadian Dollar Outlook Unclear

USDCAD – Exceedingly choppy US Dollar/Canadian Dollar sentiment leaves few clear signs on what to expect out of the currency pair. Two weeks ago we highlighted strongly net-short sentiment as a sign that the USDCAD could continue higher. Yet price failed to break significant resistance at the C$0.9900 mark , and sentiment has once again flipped on the choppy USDAD pair.

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Positioning is mostly unchanged from yesterday, but it’s worth noting that long positions are 25.4% stronger since last week. Short positions have fallen 10.2% through the same stretch, and a continued shift towards crowd buying would give us contrarian signal that the USDCAD could fall further. In the meantime we may need to wait for real sentiment extremes before taking stronger conviction in short-term USDCAD forecasts.

To receive future SSI reports and other research from author David Rodríguez, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to drodriguez@dailyfx.com.

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