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Canadian Dollar Forecast to Remain Volatile Against USD

Canadian Dollar Forecast to Remain Volatile Against USD

2010-03-11 15:54:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Business Development
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 SSI311usdcad

USDCAD – Dramatic declines in the US Dollar/Canadian Dollar pair has led our Speculative Sentiment Index to its biggest extremes since October, 2007—underlining the level of extreme sentiment on the North American currency pair. At its peak, the SSI ratio showed that those long USDCAD outnumbered shorts by over 5:1. The more recent bounce has led to a commensurate pullback in the SSI, but it remains at a fairly pronounced 3.29 as nearly 77% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.70 as 79% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.3% lower than yesterday and 8.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.2% higher than yesterday and 10.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.9% weaker than yesterday and 26.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals further USDCAD losses. Yet price action promises to be volatile at such a clear sentiment extreme.

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