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Retail Crowd Positioning Shifts Keep Focus on US Dollar Downside

Retail Crowd Positioning Shifts Keep Focus on US Dollar Downside

Christopher Vecchio, CFA,

Talking Points:

- Retail crowd increases net-long USD position against EUR and JPY.

- NZDUSD positioning flip last week holds, confirming the recent rally.

- Gold rally given clearance now that crowd has flipped to net-short.

View individual currency sections:

EURUSD - Euro Outlook Turning More Bullish as Crowd Fades Advance

GBPUSD – British Pound Forecast Neutralizes as Shorts Cut amid Rally

USDJPY – Japanese Yen Eyes Further Gains versus the US Dollar

AUDUSD – Australian Dollar Levity Finds Support as Positioning Narrows

NZDUSD – New Zealand Dollar Sentiment Flip Holds, Supports Gains

XAUUSD – Gold Forecast Turns Bullish as Crowd Fades Rally

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

The retail crowd’s shift into heavier net-long US Dollar positions last week coincided with the start of the next leg lower across the USD-complex. With these small speculators continuing to add to net-long US Dollar positions amid weakness, we still prefer to fade the crowd’s recent positioning shifts. As such, further declines in various USD-pairs in the days ahead seems like the likely outcome.

View Real-Time SSI Updates via the FXCM Trading Station Desktop

See a video on how we use the Speculative Sentiment Index in our trading

How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.