News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Russia is likely to agree on rollover of current OPEC+ oil output for Q1 21 if needed - OPEC sources
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.95% Silver: 0.79% Gold: 0.50% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/hhicQTxgnK
  • France's Le Drian says hopeful a compromise can be reached at European Council Meeting on Dec 10-11 $GBP
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (NOV) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 2.8% Previous: 2.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-25
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final (NOV) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 2.6% Previous: 2.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-25
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Personal Income MoM (OCT) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-25
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Personal Spending MoM (OCT) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.4% Previous: 1.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-25
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 PCE Price Index MoM (OCT) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-25
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index MoM (OCT) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0% Previous: 0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-25
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 New Home Sales MoM (OCT) due at 15:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.5% Previous: -3.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-25
Diminishing Positioning Suggests that US Dollar Rebound May Have Started

Diminishing Positioning Suggests that US Dollar Rebound May Have Started

2013-10-10 17:10:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- Forex trading crowds remain aggressively long the US Dollar across the board, although profit taking may be occurring during the recent USD rally.

- Easing sentiment extremes warn that velocity of turnaround in price may have passed its apex.

- Continued reduction in US Dollar long positioning would warrant broader consideration for a major turnaround.

View individual currency sections:

EURUSD - Retail FX Reduces but Maintains Bearish Euro Bias

USDJPY - Bullish Dollar Breakout Hinges on Bearish Sentiment Easing

GBPUSD - New Lows for GBPUSD as Retail FX Takes Profit on Shorts

AUDUSD - Australian Dollar Showing Signs of Bullish Continuation

USDCHF - US Dollar at Potentially Significant Turning Point versus Swiss Franc

SPX500 - S&P 500 May Run Higher as Markets Look Short on Fiscal Issues

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

ssi_table_story_body_Picture_1.png, Diminishing Positioning Suggests that US Dollar Rebound May Have Started

The US Dollar has rebounded from major lows across the board, and extremely one-sided retail forex sentiment easing suggests that we’ve seen an extreme in both price and positioning. The question now, if the bottom is in place, is “will the US Dollar rally further from here?” If trends in retail FX sentiment continue as they have developed over the past week, the answer might be “yes.”

As the US Dollar has made technical rebounds against a number of its major counterparts, including the British Pound and the Japanese Yen – two of the leaders against the US Dollar in recent months – retail FX positioning, bullish USD, has narrowed.

To be clear, retail FX has been correct in their bullish USD outlook. In the case of the EURUSD and the GBPUSD, the tick higher in the SSI ratio over the past week resulted from traders taking profit and flipping long (% change in long positions exceeded % change in short positions). Should positioning continue to move away from recent extremes, this emerging trend of a stronger US Dollar could continue.

ssi_table_story_body_x0000_i1032.png, Diminishing Positioning Suggests that US Dollar Rebound May Have Startedssi_table_story_body_x0000_i1029.png, Diminishing Positioning Suggests that US Dollar Rebound May Have Started

Automate our SSI-based trading strategies via Mirror Trader free of charge

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact Christopher via email at cvecchio@dailyfx.com.

Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/CVecchioFX

Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES