Diminishing Positioning Suggests that US Dollar Rebound May Have Started
- Easing sentiment extremes warn that velocity of turnaround in price may have passed its apex.
- Continued reduction in US Dollar long positioning would warrant broader consideration for a major turnaround.
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Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning
The US Dollar has rebounded from major lows across the board, and extremely one-sided retail forex sentiment easing suggests that we’ve seen an extreme in both price and positioning. The question now, if the bottom is in place, is “will the US Dollar rally further from here?” If trends in retail FX sentiment continue as they have developed over the past week, the answer might be “yes.”
As the US Dollar has made technical rebounds against a number of its major counterparts, including the British Pound and the Japanese Yen – two of the leaders against the US Dollar in recent months – retail FX positioning, bullish USD, has narrowed.
To be clear, retail FX has been correct in their bullish USD outlook. In the case of the EURUSD and the GBPUSD, the tick higher in the SSI ratio over the past week resulted from traders taking profit and flipping long (% change in long positions exceeded % change in short positions). Should positioning continue to move away from recent extremes, this emerging trend of a stronger US Dollar could continue.
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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact Christopher via email at email@example.com.
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.