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US Dollar Set to Lose as Traders Far too Willing to Buy

US Dollar Set to Lose as Traders Far too Willing to Buy

2013-03-21 15:00:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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Our sentiment-based strategies have sold the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Aussie and GBP; a clear shift in sentiment leaves us in favor of further Greenback weakness.

View individual currency sections:

EURUSD - Euro’s Failure to Hold Lows Leaves Risks to Topside

GBPUSD - Buying British Pound Attractive for Three Key Reasons

USDJPY - Japanese Yen Outlook Uncertain as Traders Sell

XAUUSD - Gold May Rally Further as Crowds Go in Opposite Direction

SPX500 - Fresh Highs in SPX500 Seem Likely as Crowds Aggressively Short

AUDUSD - Australian Dollar Targets $1.05 as Crowds Happy to Sell

Weekly Summary of Forex Trader Sentiment and Changes in Positioning

ssi_table_story_body_Picture_12.png, US Dollar Set to Lose as Traders Far too Willing to Buy

Retail forex traders are now net-short the British Pound against the US Dollar for the first time since January, and our sentiment-based Momentum2 strategy first bought at $1.4918 then at $1.5137. The same system likewise bought the Australian Dollar from $1.0296, and the overall shift in sentiment leaves us in favor of further short-term USD weakness.

It should come of little surprise that we similarly favor Gold and SPX500 gains—both are priced in US Dollar terms. Indeed, the only pair in which we have a more nuanced Dollar bias is the USDJPY. That said, our SSI-based forecasts have been less useful for the Yen through recent price action and we’ll need a clearer shift in crowd sentiment before taking a bias with real conviction.

Download eight years’ worth of SSI data via this link.

ssi_table_story_body_1a.png, US Dollar Set to Lose as Traders Far too Willing to Buy

View how to automate the high-volatility Breakout2 Trading System via our previous article and webinar recording.

Auto trade the trend reversal-trading Momentum2system via our previous article and webinar recording.

Trade with strong trends via our Momentum1 Trading System and view an archived webinar

Use our counter-trend Range2 Trading system and view an archived webinar guide on automation

ssi_table_story_body_Picture_13.png, US Dollar Set to Lose as Traders Far too Willing to Buy

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

New to FX markets? Learn more in our video trading guide.

Contact David via

Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Facebook at http://www.Facebook.com/DRodriguezFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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