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Forex Analysis: Retail Traders Heavily Long USD, Reversal Risk Grows

Forex Analysis: Retail Traders Heavily Long USD, Reversal Risk Grows

2012-12-13 15:36:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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Retail forex trading crowds have bought aggressively into US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) weakness against the Euro and Australian Dollar, we see risk of further declines.

View individual currency sections:

EURUSD - Crowds Most Net Short EURUSD Since High

GBPUSD - British Pound Sees Reversal Risk Near High

USDJPY - USDJPY Poised for Further Gains

USDCHF - Swiss Franc Forecast to Strengthen

USDCAD - Canadian Dollar Eyes Further Gains

AUDUSD - Australian Dollar Sentiment Warns of Extremes

ssi_table_story_body_SSI.png, Forex Analysis: Retail Traders Heavily Long USD, Reversal Risk Grows

Our sentiment-based forex trading strategies continue to sell the US Dollar and Japanese Yen across the board, and our overall outlook for market conditions likewise favors trading USD and JPY weakness.

It is important to note that sentiment is quite often at its most one-sided at important market tops and bottoms, and there is clear risk of a US Dollar reversal—particularly against the high-flying Australian Dollar. Yet tops and bottoms are only clear in hindsight, and current retail sentiment readings warn against buying USD and JPY weakness.

ssi_table_story_body_Picture_10.png, Forex Analysis: Retail Traders Heavily Long USD, Reversal Risk Grows

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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