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Euro Could Bounce Despite Bearish ECB Decision on FX Sentiment

Euro Could Bounce Despite Bearish ECB Decision on FX Sentiment

2011-12-08 17:14:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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ssi_table_story_body_Picture_5.png, Euro Could Bounce Despite Bearish ECB Decision on FX Sentiment

Forex trading crowds have sold the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) into recent rallies, but we view fresh USD highs as unlikely into the final weeks of December and believe that the EURUSD and other pairs could bounce through short-term trading.

We typically use forex trading crowd sentiment as a purely contrarian indicator, but analysis of FX Options traders and futures positioning suggests that the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) may continue lower into year-end.

Speculators quite often close positions into the illiquid final weeks of the year and start of the New Year. Thus if most Non-commercial futures traders are currently long US Dollars, we could expect the USD to fall on a deleveraging across financial markets. Low FX Options market volatility expectations likewise support calls for USD pullbacks.

View an FXCM Expo presentation on the Speculative Sentiment Index for better understanding on how we use it in our trading.

ssi_table_story_body_Picture_6.png, Euro Could Bounce Despite Bearish ECB Decision on FX Sentiment

How do we interpret the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the SSI via e-mail and other reports from author David Rodríguez, e-mail subject line “Distribution List” to drodriguez@dailyfx.com

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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