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Need to See a Larger Move to Confirm S&P 500 Top

Need to See a Larger Move to Confirm S&P 500 Top

David Rodriguez, Head of Product
 Need to See a Larger Move to Confirm S&P 500 Top

Receive the Weekly Speculative Sentiment Index report via PDF via David’s e-mail distribution list.

SPX500 Retail speculators have significantly scaled back short positions on the SPX500 contract, which tracks the fair value of the S&P 500 futures price. A sharp shift in sentiment warns we are at a crossroads.

Trade Implications SPX500 Several weeks ago we argued that stock markets seemed “unbreakable”, but as if on cue the SPX500 has pulled back sharply from record-highs. Crowds remain marginally net-short, which would normally give us contrarian signal that stocks are likely to continue higher. Yet we’ll need the S&P 500 to hold the psychologically significant 1900 mark to have any confidence in further gains.

See next currency section: NZDUSD - New Zealand Dollar Targets Fresh Declines

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

 Need to See a Larger Move to Confirm S&P 500 Top

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