Euro Positioning Pulls Back Sharply - High Risk of Reversal

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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 36.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.78 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.08143; price has moved 9.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.0% lower than yesterday and 32.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.3% lower than yesterday and 25.8% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

See next article in this week’s report: GBPUSD - British Pound Outlook Turns Positive