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Euro Forecast to Continue Higher versus US Dollar until this Changes

Euro Forecast to Continue Higher versus US Dollar until this Changes

David Rodriguez, Head of Product


EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 27.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.0589; price has moved 5.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.6% higher than yesterday and 3.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.6% lower than yesterday and 6.7% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. We would ideally see a further build in short positions before taking a more firm bullish stance. And yet Euro gains remain likely as long as the majority of traders remain net-short.

See next article in this week’s report: GBPUSD - British Pound Likely to Stick to Narrow Trading Range

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.