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Euro Forecast to Continue Higher versus US Dollar until this Changes

Euro Forecast to Continue Higher versus US Dollar until this Changes

David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Euro Forecast to Continue Higher versus US Dollar until this Changes

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 27.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.0589; price has moved 5.7% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.6% higher than yesterday and 3.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.6% lower than yesterday and 6.7% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. We would ideally see a further build in short positions before taking a more firm bullish stance. And yet Euro gains remain likely as long as the majority of traders remain net-short.

See next article in this week’s report: GBPUSD - British Pound Likely to Stick to Narrow Trading Range

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