Euro Forecast Shifts as Traders Change Direction

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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 40.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.5 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Mar 15 when EURUSD traded near 1.06116; price has moved 1.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 32.8% higher than yesterday and 42.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.2% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.