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Euro Forecast was Accurate Last Week, but now what?

Euro Forecast was Accurate Last Week, but now what?

David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Euro Forecast was Accurate Last Week, but now what?

NEW: View Real-Time SSI Updates via the FXCM Trading Station Desktop

EURUSD – Retail FX traders were recently the most net-short the Euro versus the US Dollar since it traded to $1.40 through May, 2014, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment kept us steadily bullish the EUR/USD. Yet the past week has seen a substantial pullback in short interest. First we saw many traders forced out of short positions as the pair spiked to $1.17, and since then we have seen many take profits on the substantial Euro pullback. Such a dramatic reversal in both price and positioning creates a great deal of uncertainty.

Crowds remain net-short, and we would typically treat this as a contrarian indication that the EUR/USD could continue higher. Yet clear market indecision since last week leaves us waiting for a more sustained shift in sentiment before taking a strong stance.

See next currency section: GBPUSD - British Pound Likely to Fall Further

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