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Euro Bounce May be Short-Lived as Sentiment Unchanged

Euro Bounce May be Short-Lived as Sentiment Unchanged

2014-12-04 16:45:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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Euro Bounce May be Short-Lived as Sentiment Unchanged

Receive the Weekly Speculative Sentiment Index report via PDF via David’s e-mail distribution list.

EURUSDThe Euro continues to tumble versus the US Dollar, and recent shifts in retail FX trader positioning warn that it could continue onto fresh lows.

Trade Implications – EURUSD: Traders in our sample are once again net-long the Euro versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us with a contrarian bearish trading bias. It is worth noting that sentiment has been especially choppy in recent weeks—positions have flipped between net-long and net-short on a regular basis.

Yet we’ve interestingly not seen a more sustained shift even following the post-European Central Bank meeting bounce. Until sentiment changes we see little reason to expect a meaningful EURUSD reversal.

See next currency section: GBPUSD - British Pound Forecast to Hit Further Lows versus USD

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

Euro Bounce May be Short-Lived as Sentiment Unchanged

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