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Euro Uptrend Intact but Sentiment Nears Extreme

Euro Uptrend Intact but Sentiment Nears Extreme

2011-03-24 15:38:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Share:
ssi_eur-usd_body_Picture_6.png, Euro Uptrend Intact but Sentiment Nears Extreme

EURUSD Trading crowds have remained fairly net short the Euro against the US Dollar, showing few important signs of relenting and giving contrarian signal to stay long into EURUSD rallies. There is legitimate risk that the pair could have set an important sentiment extreme as the SSI ratio went below -3.00 for the first time since the EURUSD set an important top in November, 2009. Yet sentiment extremes are only clear in retrospect and we hesitate to make strong calls for reversal absent a more material shift in sentiment.

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.85 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.03 as 67% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.2% higher than yesterday and 33.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 0.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.3% stronger than yesterday and 1.2% below its monthly average. The net-short ratio gives contrarian signal to buy into EURUSD rallies.

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