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Euro Forecast to Turn Lower Against US Dollar

Euro Forecast to Turn Lower Against US Dollar

2011-03-10 15:52:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Business Development
Share:
ssi_eur-usd_body_Picture_7.png, Euro Forecast to Turn Lower Against US Dollar

EURUSD Forex trading crowds have remained heavily net-short the Euro against the US Dollar since the pair traded near the 1.3000 mark, giving strong contrarian signal to stay long into rallies. Yet the most recent turn lower has elicited a noteworthy week-over-week drop in short positions and similarly pronounced jump in long positions. The shift in crowd sentiment gives early warning that the tide may have turned in the US Dollar’s favor, and indeed one of our SSI-based trading strategies has gone short from approximately the 1.3900 mark.

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.85 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.71 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.5% lower than yesterday and 19.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.0% higher than yesterday and 10.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.8% weaker than yesterday and 0.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and the most recent shift suggests the Euro may continue lower.

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