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Australian Dollar Forecast may Shift Given Key Change in Sentiment

Australian Dollar Forecast may Shift Given Key Change in Sentiment

David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Australian Dollar Forecast may Shift Given Key Change in Sentiment

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

AUDUSD: Retail trader data shows 40.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.5 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Jun 04 when AUDUSD traded near 0.74411; price has moved 2.0% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.6% higher than yesterday and 23.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.7% higher than yesterday and 13.4% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn we may be at the beginning of a trend change in the AUDUSD. We would need to see a larger build in ‘crowd’ buying to confirm that the Australian Dollar has indeed turned lower.

See next article in this week’s report: S&P 500 - S&P Remains a Buy, though Risk of Reversal has Grown

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