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Australian Dollar Forecast to Fall to Fresh Lows

Australian Dollar Forecast to Fall to Fresh Lows

2015-07-09 14:05:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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Australian Dollar Forecast to Fall to Fresh Lows

Receive the Weekly Speculative Sentiment Index report via PDF via David’s e-mail distribution list.

AUDUSD Heavily one-sided Retail FX sentiment warns that the Australian Dollar may continue lower against its US namesake. The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.91 as 74% of traders are long, and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us watching for further weakness.

It’s worth noting that total open short positions have risen 20.2% above levels seen last week, while long positions are up a lesser 1.1% through the same stretch. We can’t rule out the possibility that the recent shift may be the start of a larger AUD reversal, but we would need to see a much more sustained shift in crowd positions to call for a larger bounce.

See next currency section:NZDUSD - New Zealand Dollar Losses Remain Likely

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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