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Gold Technical Forecast: Gold Price Stable at Support- June Levels

Gold Technical Forecast: Gold Price Stable at Support- June Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

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Gold prices are trading just above key support into the June open and the focus is on inflection off this critical zone for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly technical price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinarfor an in-depth breakdown of thisgold technical setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the collapse in XAU/USD was, “probing a major technical confluence at uptrend support…Ultimately, we’re on the lookout for signs of an exhaustion low in the weeks ahead.” Gold plunged into the yearly low-week close at 1791 (low registered at 1786) before reversing sharply with price now once again resting just above key confluent support at 1818/33 – a region defined by the 100% extension of the yearly decline, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 20221 rally and the 52-week moving average. Was that the exhaustion low we were looking for?

Initial weekly resistance heading into the start of the month eyed at the 38.2% retracement of the March sell-off / 2021 high close at 1895/1903- a breach / close above this threshold would be needed to shift the medium-term outlook higher again with such a scenario exposing the April high-week reversal close at 1926 and the 61.8% retracement at 1962.

Bottom line: The gold prices plunged into and rebounded off key technical support and the focus into the start of June is on continued inflection off the 1818/33 zone. From a trading standpoint, be on the lookout for downside exhaustion ahead of 1818 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a topside breach / close above 1903 needed to validate a larger reversal. Stay nimble into the monthly open, weakness beyond this support zone could see another accelerated sell-off towards fresh yearly lows / 1729. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Retail Positioning - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +5.02 (83.40% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are0.59% higher than yesterday and 4.65% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 4.21% lower than yesterday and 5.89% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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