Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Gold Technical Outlook: Gold Searches a Low- XAU/USD at Major Levels

Gold Technical Outlook: Gold Searches a Low- XAU/USD at Major Levels

What's on this page

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels


Gold prices are attempting to mount a counter-offensive today on the heels of a massive sell-off that has seen XAU/USD plunge more than 10% off the yearly highs. It’s the start of ta new month with the FOMC rate decision and US Non-Farm Payrolls still on tap – IF gold doesn’t find a low at these levels, the technical damage could be profound for the longer-term uptrend. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD technical charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Dec 22
( 13:12 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Short-term Trading Strategy Webinar
Register for Webinar
Join Now
Webinar Has Ended

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that the XAU/USD, “reversal takes price back into meaningful technical support and the focus is on possible price inflection down here.” The level in focus was the 2021 high-day close at 1918- and we got a major inflection! An accelerated sell-off plunged more than 7.4% with the decline coming within just cents of confluent support at the 2021 high-week close at 1849- a break below this key level would threaten a washout-towards the 100% extension of the yearly decline / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 advance at 1818/27. Both of these levels represent significant long-term uptrend support and we’re on the lookout for a possible exhaustion low.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of a modified descending pitchfork formation extending off the March / April highs with an embedded channel guiding this latest decline. Initial resistance here at 1877 backed by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range / monthly open at 1891/97- rallies should be capped by this threshold IF price is going to make a run on critical support at 1818/27. Ultimately a breach through the median-line would shift the focus back towards downtrend resistance with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at 1918, 1937/41 with broader bearish invalidation with the 2021 high at 1959.

Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest quarterly Gold Price Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The gold breakdown is in search of a low. IF this is the low, a close above 1897 should clear the way for a larger recovery. From at trading standpoint, a good region to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – we’re looking for evidence of an exhaustion low with either a drop into 1818/27 OR a rally through 1897 needed to offer new entry opportunities. Keep in mind the FOMC interest rate decision is slated for tomorrow with US Non-Farm Payrolls still on tap Friday- expect volatility and stay nimble here. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Retail Positioning - GC Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +4.32 (81.20% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are2.89% higher than yesterday and 5.61% lower from last week
  • Short positions are9.35% higher than yesterday and 3.10% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Gold Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 7% -25% -4%
Weekly -8% -4% -7%
Learn how shifts in Gold retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

Economic Calendar

Key Data Releases - Economic Calendar - Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.