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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD at Breakout Levels- Gold Bulls Eye FOMC

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD at Breakout Levels- Gold Bulls Eye FOMC

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

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Gold prices surged more than 7.2% off the yearly low with the rally now probing confluence technical resistance heading into the Federal Reserve interest rate decision this afternoon. We’re on the lookout for possible inflection up here with bulls vulnerable into 1800. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly charts into the close of the month. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - CG Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that a reversal off technical support at 1682/89 kept the focus on, “key resistance just higher with the recent rebound vulnerable while below August 2020 trendline.” The XAU/USD rally faltered into this slope last week with price continuing to trade just below confluence resistance at the February opening-range low / 2012 high at 1785/95- we are on the lookout for price inflection up here.

Monthly open support rests at 1707 backed by key support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2015 advance / 61.8% retracement of the 2020 range at 1682/89 and the 100% extension at 1648- both regions of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. A breach / close above this key resistance zone would likely fuel another bout of accelerated gains with such a scenario exposing the objective yearly high-week reversal close at 1849.

Bottom line: Gold is testing confluence resistance here into the August trendline and the immediate advance may be vulnerable heading into the FOMC rated decision later today. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for downside exhaustion ahead of the monthly open IF price is indeed heading higher with a breach / close above 1795 needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Retail Positioning - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +4.61 (82.19% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are0.91% higher than yesterday and 0.54% lower from last week
  • Short positions are1.43% lower than yesterday and 7.92% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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