News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • this was the central focus of the q2 tech forecast on $USD. Monthly chart, resistance on underside of long-term trend channel after fibo support helped to provide the bounce in early-Q1 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/04/USD-Q2-2021-Technical-Forecast.html https://t.co/vtSoeJ4dsi
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.55%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/rs6RgWvlsG
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.27% Gold: -0.27% Silver: -0.90% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/XXWvUv4FbP
  • US Indices are all trading in the red today, with Tech and Small Caps both down over 1%. DOW -0.53% SPX -0.71% NDX -1.30% RUT -1.58% $DIA $SPY $QQQ $IWM
  • USD/CAD trades to a fresh monthly low (1.2471) following the failed attempt to push back above the 50-Day SMA (1.2585). Get your $USDCAD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/H4HSs3F399 https://t.co/XNCeAY4VJS
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 1.01% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.65% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.50% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.41% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.33% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/84xpQjIXNy
  • The Cable Come Back $GBPUSD hard charging for that 1.4000 handle - the same that rebuked the advance multiple times in March https://t.co/8LCcOxhGVF
  • $USD now down to the next fibo level, trying to grasp on to the 618 Q2 reversal theme still in play https://t.co/2VG2DW5lX5 https://t.co/vjzCG0gxHk
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: -0.19% FTSE 100: -0.20% Germany 30: -0.21% Wall Street: -0.40% US 500: -0.58% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/lcRh4V7LPH
  • $Gold pulling back, support potential around prior neckline from the double bottom formation $GC https://t.co/zn5e1byJPx https://t.co/ImAEGmKN4G
Gold Price Outlook: Gold Recovery First Test at Trend Resistance

Gold Price Outlook: Gold Recovery First Test at Trend Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels

Advertisement

Gold prices have been range-bound this week after rebounding off critical confluence support and the immediate focus is on this recovery in XAU/USD. Price has carved a well-defined weekly range and we’re looking for the break to offer near-term guidance as we head into the close of February trade. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD technical charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Apr 21
( 13:04 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Mid-Week Market Updates Featuring Michael Boutros, Strategist
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook- GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that, “The recent Gold recovery may be vulnerable here into 1876… be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion ahead of the upper parallel IF price is indeed heading lower.” The slope saw a secondary test in the following days with price registering a higher at 1855 before plummeting more than 5% into critical support at 1763/67 – a region defined by the 50% retracement of the 2020 range, the 61.8% extension of the August decline and the objective November swing lows. Our focus is on the immediate recovery off this mark.

Daily support rests with the low-day close / weekly open at 1784 with a break / close below 1763 still needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Key daily resistance now lowered to the highlighted confluence zone at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 year-to-date range around 1836 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach above the February open at 1848 needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the late-January highs. A recovery of more than 3.1% off key support keeps the focus on the weekly opening-range which has taken shape just above the low-day close between 1784 and 1816- look to the breakout for guidance. Watch for topside exhaustion ahead of the upper parallel IF price is heading lower with a break below key support exposing the 100% extension at 1739 and the lower parallels near ~1700.

Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest quarterly Gold Price Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: Last week’s rebound off key support in gold is trading into downtrend resistance and we’re looking for inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- Ultimately, the risk remains for a deeper break while within this formation and a break below this threshold could fuel accelerated losses for the yellow metal.Keep in mind we’re heading into the close of the month- not the best time for new intraday positioning. Stay nimble as we head into the March open. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Retail Positioning - CG Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +5.20 (83.88% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are0.79% higher than yesterday and 5.97% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 1.28% lower than yesterday and 10.73% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Gold Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 0% 0% 0%
Weekly -2% 3% -1%
Learn how shifts in Gold retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES