News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (AUG) Actual: 40.1 Previous: 62.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
  • The Canadian Dollar has been caught in broad ranges against the Euro and the US Dollar, but can the upside bias in USD/CAD and EUR/CAD prolong? Find out here:https://t.co/8DubboXsjv https://t.co/SQAz8sCpmv
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Bitcoin Outlook: Crypto Adoption to Become Widespread in Wake of El Salvador, AMC? #Bitcoin #Ethereum $AMC $BTCUSD $ET…
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Business NZ PMI (AUG) due at 22:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 62.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
  • The 10-day range and realized volatility (ATR) on $USDMXN are the lowest since 2008 and 2014 respectively. Breakout risk is high - when the right spark comes along (eg FOMC) https://t.co/teP1XQI7W6
  • Bitcoin taking a breather today after rallying back above $47,000. 50-day MA crosses back above the 200-day MA $BTCUSD #Bitcoin https://t.co/5Yidx9WQhc
  • AUD/USD extends the decline following the larger-than-expected contraction in Australia employment as fresh data prints coming out of the US fuel speculation for an imminent shift in monetary policy. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/40vc0oCeiE https://t.co/vjrF47cALn
  • Gold prices are plodding along below symmetrical triangle support, with momentum indicators starting to point lower. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/9JDAY4QlnJ https://t.co/ftL6JbIC3c
  • Ouch. S&P Global said today that El Salvador's announcement that Bitcoin was legal tender represented an 'immediate' negative credit risk to its B- standing. They warn of trouble with IMF fund access and fiscal vulnerabilities. #Bitcoin
  • 🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (JUL) Actual: $126B Previous: $32B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
Gold Price Outlook: Gold Rally Runs into First Test of Resistance

Gold Price Outlook: Gold Rally Runs into First Test of Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels

Advertisement

Gold prices rallied more than 2.3% this week XAU/USD marking a third consecutive weekly advance. A reversal off technical downtrend support is now approaching the first major test of downtrend resistance – we’re on the lookout for price inflection in the days ahead with the immediate rally vulnerable into these upcoming levels. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD technical charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that XAU/USD had responded to key support and to look for, “a stretch into confluence resistance near 1884/88 – look for a reaction / pivot there with a breach / close above needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.” Gold is up more than 2.3% this week with the rally testing this key threshold in early New York trade on Friday -watch the close for guidance with the immediate rally vulnerable near-term while below.

Daily support rests with the 25% parallel (currently ~1827) backed by 1790/1803 – both zones of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF price is indeed heading higher. A topside breach from here exposes subsequent daily resistance objectives at the 50% retracement / 2011 high / 100% extension at 1920/30and the 61.8% retracement of the August decline at 1956a breach / close above this threshold would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines an embedded ascending channel extending off the late-November lows with the recent rally now pressing Fibonacci resistance at the 1888. Weekly open support rest at 1840 with a break below this week’s lows risking a larger setback in price. Ultimately the trade remains constructive while within the broader pitchfork formation (blue) extending off the yearly low.

Bottom line: The gold price recovery is testing the first major resistance level into 1888 at uptrend resistance- looking for inflection off this zone. From at trading standpoint, a good region to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – the rally remains constructive near-term while above the weekly open but the advance may be vulnerable closer to slope resistance. We’ll be on the lookout for a more prominent reaction on a stretch into 1920/30 for guidance IF reached. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.30 (76.74% of traders are long) – typically bearishreading
  • Long positions are0.19% lower than yesterday and 6.66% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 11.56% higher than yesterday and 10.34% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

---

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES