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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Threatens Breakdown- GLD Levels

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Threatens Breakdown- GLD Levels

Michael Boutros,
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Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels


Gold prices are poised for a second weekly decline with XAU/USD down more than 10.4% off the yearly high. Bullion has continued to straddle a key pivot zone we’ve been tracking for months now with the threat of further losses mounting while below 1909. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that XAU/USD was trading within a descending formation but to be mindful of the upcoming elections as price was trading just below confluence resistance at the 2011 high-week close / high close at 1897-1909. The presidential election charged a breakout that registered a high at 1965 before reversing sharply lower with gold now once again approaching the September lows.

Confluence technical support remains at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range at 1836 backed by and the 2012 high / 100% extension at 1795-1803 (critical) – look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Channel resistance is eyed near ~1955 with a breach / close above the November opening-range highs needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

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Bottom line: Gold prices have broken back below a technical pivot zone with the decline eyeing multi-month lows. From a trading standpoint, a favorable zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a test of Fibonacci support just near 1836– look for a reaction there for guidance with a weekly close below suggesting a larger correction is underway. Keep in mind, this could be a massive consolidation pattern but ultimately, we’ll need a breach / close above 1965 to but the bulls back in control. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +5.11 (83.64% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are8.76% higher than yesterday and 2.81% lower from last week
  • Short positions are6.28% lower than yesterday and 5.11% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Gold Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% 4% 2%
Weekly -3% 28% 10%
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.