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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Vaccine Sell-off Tests Key Support Zone

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Vaccine Sell-off Tests Key Support Zone

2020-11-16 19:43:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels

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Gold prices covered the entire October range in just one day and the focus is on a break of this zone for guidance as price holds just above uptrend support. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD technical charts heading into the start of the week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that XAU/USD risked, “a deeper correction while below 1920 with a break below the September lows needed to fuel the next leg lower in price.” Gold broke higher days later to briefly register a high at 1965 before posting a massive outside candle (encompasses the entire October trade range) lower on news of a covid-19 vaccine last week.

The November opening-range is set and defined by the November 9th candle – look to the break for guidance. Key support rests at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range / September low at 1837/48 with a break there exposing more a significant technical confluence at the 2012 high / 100% extension at 1790/1803- an region of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. Daily resistance steady at 1920 backed by the August channel line – ultimately a breach / close above 1988/92 is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min - GLD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines a near-term ascending pitchfork formation extending off the November lows with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below 1900. Risk for topside exhaustion ahead of 1908 with a break below the September low-day close suggesting a larger correction is underway towards subsequent support objectives at 1848 and 1837. A break / close above the 2011 high / 61.8% retracement at 1920/21 is needed to fuel the next leg higher in price.

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Bottom line: Gold prices are carving the weekly opening-range just below 1900 – look for the break to offer guidance. From a trading standpoint, the near-term recovery remains vulnerable sub-1920 with a break / close below 1867 risking a deeper correction. Ultimately, a larger pullback may offer more favorable opportunities closer to broader uptrend support. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +4.26 (80.98% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are5.45% lower than yesterday and 14.18% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 18.97% higher than yesterday and 18.33% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Gold BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% -1% 2%
Weekly 8% -1% 7%
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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