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Gold Price Outlook: Recovery Stalls Below Record High- XAU/USD Levels

Gold Price Outlook: Recovery Stalls Below Record High- XAU/USD Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices are virtually unchanged on the week despite a 4.7% trading range. The move keeps price in consolidation just below the record highs and the risk remains for a deeper setback near-term while below technical resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the, “The gold breakout is underway with the rally now approaching initial topside resistance objectives,” at 1983 and 200% extension of the 2015 multi-year range-break at 2033. Gold registered an intra-week high at 2075 early in the month before reversing sharply with the high-week close further highlighting the region at 2035.

Note that weekly momentum has now broken back below the 70-threshold and highlights the risk for a deeper pullback while below 2033/35.

Weekly support steady at the 2011 high close / high-week close at 1898-1909 and a weekly close below this zone is needed to suggest a more significant correction is underway towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range at 1836 and the 2012 swing high at 1795- both zones of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

Bottom line: The gold breakout remains vulnerable on the back of this stretch – from a trading standpoint, be on the lookout for downside exhaustion while above 1795 IF price is indeed heading higher with a topside breach above 2033 needed to mark resumption – subsequent topside resistance objective at 2105 and 2179. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.63 (78.40% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are2.48% higher than yesterday and 11.62% higher from last week
  • Short positions are4.76% lower than yesterday and 1.74% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading biasfrom a sentiment standpoint.

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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