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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout at Extremes- Reload or Reversal?

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout at Extremes- Reload or Reversal?

2020-05-19 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices are up more than 20% off the yearly low with the advance taking XAU/USD back into a critical multi-year resistance slope. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable at these levels and we’re looking for the weekly close for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally was, “testing critical long-term uptrend resistance and the focus is on the weekly close with respective to 1733.” This threshold held for over a month and although price did close above for the first time on Friday, the advance remains vulnerable as price continues to struggle near pitchfork resistance on building weekly divergence.

Initial support rests at the March high-close at 1673 backed by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1645- losses should be governed by this level IF price is indeed heading higher.A topside breach from here exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 2012 high at 1795 backed by the record high-week close at 1856.

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Bottom line: The gold price rally is once again testing critical long-term uptrend resistance and the immediate focus is on a weekly close above this slope to keep the long-bias viable heading into the close of the month. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – be on the lookout for possible exhaustion while below this week’s high IF price is going to correct first. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Techncial Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.47 (71.16% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are5.81% lower than yesterday and 3.79% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 9.27% lower than yesterday and 21.27% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Gold MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
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Weekly 10% -5% 6%
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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