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Gold Price Forecast: Coiling into Flag Ahead of a Breakout? - Key Levels for XAU/USD

Gold Price Forecast: Coiling into Flag Ahead of a Breakout? - Key Levels for XAU/USD

2020-05-08 15:45:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Gold Price Forecast Overview:

  • Gold prices continue to weather the storm of improving risk appetite, maintaining their bull flag consolidation just below the yearly highs.
  • It remains the case that gold’s stability during a period declining gold volatility may be a sign of positive developments on the horizon, as it so often has been the case over the past year.
  • According to theIG Client Sentiment Index, gold prices may soon turn higher despite the fact that traders remain net-long.
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Gold Prices Maintain Consolidation Below Yearly Highs

Gold prices have been gyrating sideways for the past several weeks, coiling into an ever-tightening flag (or symmetrical triangle) pattern that favors a move to new highs. Yet traders looking for a catalyst in the April US nonfarm payrolls report, the worst jobs report in the past 80 years (going back to The Great Depression), came up disappointed with the lack of significant price action.

Indeed, with the initial jobless claims report coming out on a weekly basis, it seems that much of the negative news about the US labor market was discounted. For now, gold prices continue their consolidation just below their yearly highs, weathering the rebound in risk appetite.

Gold Volatility Remains in Downtrend, but Gold Prices are Stable

Gold prices have a relationship with volatility unlike other asset classes, even including precious metals like silver which have economic uses. While other asset classes like bonds and stocks don’t like increased volatility signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc.gold tends to benefit during periods of higher volatility. Heightened uncertainty in financial markets due to increasing macroeconomic tensions increases the safe haven appeal of gold.

Read more: How Do Politics and Central Banks Impact FX Markets?

GVZ (Gold Volatility) Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (October 2008 to May 2020) (Chart 1)

Gold Price Forecast: Coiling into Flag Ahead of a Breakout? - Key Levels for XAU/USD

Gold volatility (as measured by the Cboe’s gold volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD option chain) is trading at 25.65, returning back above its initial coronavirus pandemic low set on March 16 at 23.96. It’s worth noting that, despite gold volatility breaking its initial coronavirus pandemic lows, gold prices did not follow lower: gold prices were trading at 1712.02 at the time this report was written; on March 16, gold prices traded as low as 1451.43.

As such, the 5-day correlation between GVZ and gold prices is 0.70 while the 20-day correlation is 0.38; one week ago, on May 1, the 5-day correlation was 0.46 and the 20-day correlation was -0.48; and one month ago, on April 9, the 5-day correlation was 0.29 and the 20-day correlation was -0.63.

It still holds that when gold volatility falls but gold prices do not follow, leading to a situation of negative correlations in the short-term, it has typically indicated a digestion period for the market prior to further gains. Accordingly, now that short-term correlations are turning positive again, and gold volatility is starting to edge higher, a gold price breakout may not be far behind.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (May 2019 to May 2020) (Chart 2)

Gold Price Forecast: Coiling into Flag Ahead of a Breakout? - Key Levels for XAU/USD

The lack of significant movement over the past few weeks has left much of our near-term gold price forecast intact: “Gold prices continue to consolidate below two key Fibonacci levels, having achieved significant upside targets in the context of both recent and longer-term moves. The two Fibonacci levels referenced are (1) the 100% extension taken from the May 2019 low, September 2019 high, and November 2019 low, with a calculated target at 1736.39, and (2) the 76.4% retracement of the 2011 high to 2015 low range at 1714.66. These have proven to be formidable resistance over the past month.

It thus still holds that the short-term sideways range has been carved out between the April 14/2020 high at 1747.72 and the April 21 swing low (which found support at the daily 21-EMA) at 1661.42. To this end, given the gold prices rallied into this consolidation, the market retains an upside bias. If gold prices do break higher from here, the near-term measured move calls for gains towards 1834.02. If gold prices break the April 21 low of 1661.42, the measured target is 1575.42.”

It should be noted that momentum has neutralized in recent days, now that gold prices are enmeshed among the daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, which is in neither bearish nor bullish sequential order. Daily MACD is falling, albeit in bullish territory, while Slow Stochastics are meagerly rising their median line. The coiling continues.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Weekly Chart – Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern (May 2011 to May 2020) (Chart 3)

Gold Price Forecast: Coiling into Flag Ahead of a Breakout? - Key Levels for XAU/USD

Gold prices have made significant progress within the confines of the multi-year inverse head & shoulders pattern, achieving their highest level since November 2012 earlier this week. It thus still holds that the rally into and through the 76.4% retracement (1714.66) must be viewed in context of the longer-term technical picture: the gold price inverse head and shoulders pattern that was triggered in mid-2019 is still valid and guiding gold price action.

Depending upon the placement of the neckline, the final upside targets in a potential long-term gold price rally, if drawing the neckline breakout against the August 2013 high at 1433.61, calls for a final target at 1820.99. This dovetails neatly with the measured move on the daily timeframe looking for gold prices to rally into 1834.02.

IG Client Sentiment Index: Gold Price Forecast (May 8, 2020) (Chart 4)

Gold Price Forecast: Coiling into Flag Ahead of a Breakout? - Key Levels for XAU/USD

Gold: Retail trader data shows 70.09% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.34 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 8.65% lower than yesterday and 2.86% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.85% higher than yesterday and 10.33% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall.

Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

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