News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true. Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here: https://t.co/fYgcMxImlP https://t.co/kkekBVYvhV
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/VwIkOMpvYl
  • “The UK and EU have agreed to return to the negotiating table to try to agree a post-#Brexit trade deal. But on Friday, a joint statement said ‘significant divergences’ remained.” - BBC News #GBP
  • Multiple time frame analysis follows a top down approach when trading and allows traders to gauge the longer-term trend while spotting ideal entries on a smaller time frame chart. Learn how to incorporate multiple time frame analysis here: https://t.co/Sy3g6HGLrR https://t.co/aRfVCRZut3
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrXkcYz https://t.co/uUh18lR3yK
  • The rising wedge is a popular reversal pattern that is predictive in nature and can give traders a clue to the direction and distance of the next price move. Incorporate the rising wedge in your trading strategy and learn more here: https://t.co/zTTk2WOrj9 https://t.co/q5oBalZieU
  • Both the S&P 500 and $EURUSD will enter the coming week with momentum to their back. What can trip up the rallies? What could keep them going? My overview for the week ahead: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/12/05/SP-500-and-EURUSD-Rallies-Face-Different-Conviction-Questions-.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/YfEXEhkbhl
  • After the recent strength of EUR/USD, a period of consolidation is likely ahead of two critical meetings: of the European Central Bank and the European Council. Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Slu7tHo2a4 https://t.co/9am4szeia1
  • Triangle patterns have three main variations and appear frequently in the forex market. These patterns provide traders with greater insight into future price movement and the possible resumption of the current trend. Learn about triangles here: https://t.co/ZukLITx2KG https://t.co/gvkXqKDQyH
  • Continuation patterns can present favorable entry levels to trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. Use continuation patterns in your technical analysis here: https://t.co/TUVnO3bO1P https://t.co/vBLkMKjf4x
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Fed Rate-Cut Rally at Risk- GLD Levels

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Fed Rate-Cut Rally at Risk- GLD Levels

2020-03-04 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels

Gold prices surged this week as an emergency rate-cut from the Federal Reserve fueled a near-term breakout of more than 3.5%. The rally is now approaching testing uptrend resistance and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable at these levels and a larger pullback may ultimately offer more favorable opportunities closer to trend support. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold trade setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Dec 07
( 13:12 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that, “ the risk remains for a deeper setback while below the high-day closebut be on the lookout for possible downside exhaustion on test of the lower parallel / uptrend support for possible entries.” XAU/USD plummeted more than 7% off the highs with price briefly registering a low at 1562 before rebounding with the recovery once again eyeing resistance at the high-day close / 78.6% retracement at 1658/62 – look for a more significant reaction there IF reached with a close above needed to mark resumption towards the yearly highs at 1689 and he 76.4% retracement at 1713.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action sees XAU/USD continuing to trade within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation with a rebound off the lower parallel now testing median-line resistance ahead of the New York open on Wednesday. Initial support now eyed at 1625 backed by 1611 – bullish invalidation now raised to the 38.2% retracement of the November advance at 1596. Ultimately a breach above confluence resistance cat the high-day close / 1.618% extension at 1658/62 is needed to fuel the next leg higher in price.

Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest quarterly Gold Price Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: Gold prices rebounded off trendline support this week with the advance now testing uptrend resistance- the immediate advance may be vulnerable heading into 1658/62. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion here near-term. Ultimately, a pullback may offer more favorable entries with a topside breach needed to fuel the next leg higher. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.21 (68.88% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are10.36% lower than yesterday and 10.62% higher from lastweek
  • Short positions are 23.13% higher than yesterday and 10.19%lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday & compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Gold BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% 5% 0%
Weekly -2% 17% 1%
Learn how shifts in Gold retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES