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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Rips to Multi-year Highs- Levels

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Rips to Multi-year Highs- Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices are surging this week with a breakout in XAU/USD fueling a rally to fresh multi-year highs. The advance takes the yellow metal towards initial weekly resistance targets just higher and the focus will be on the weekly close heading into Friday. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the, “The focus is on a weekly close in relation to long-term upslope resistance with a close above needed to keep the focus on 1586- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.” Price tested Fibonacci resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the record highs for three weeks before breaching with the breakout fueling a rally of more than 2% this week.

The XAU/USD rally is now approaching confluence resistance at the upper parallel / December 2012 lows around ~1625/27 – looking for a reaction there IF reached. A topside breach of this slope would expose subsequent resistance objectives at the 75% parallel (currently ~1670s) and the 78.6% retracement at 1733. Initial weekly support now rests 1586 backed by 1526 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to the objective yearly open at 1520.

Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast
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Bottom line: A breakout in gold prices is underway with the rally now targeting the first resistance hurdle at channel resistance. From at trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion into this region. Losses should be limited to this week’s low IF gold is heading higher on this stretch with a breach from here likely to fuel accelerated gains.For now, the immediate focus is on a reaction at upcoming resistance for guidance. I’ll publish and updated Gold Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +138 (57.94% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are2.06% lower than yesterday and 8.21% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 2.92% higher than yesterday and 35.02% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Gold BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 0% 33% 4%
Weekly -5% 13% -2%
Learn how shifts in Gold retail positioning impact trend
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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