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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Eye Trend Resistance- GLD Levels

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Eye Trend Resistance- GLD Levels

2020-02-11 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Near-term Trade Levels

Gold prices are virtually unchanged since the start of the week with XAU/USD carving out the weekly opening range just below key technical resistance. The risk remains for further losses near-term with the sell-off now approaching initial support targets. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that the, “immediate threat is lower while below the median-line but look for a reaction into 1546/48 for guidance IF reached.” XAU/USD registered a low at 1547 last week before rebounding sharply higher with a four-day rally testing near-term confluence resistance this week at 1575- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of decline off the January highs and the monthly high-day reversal close. Key daily support steady at the 2019 high-day close at 1552.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action sees XAU/USD trading within the confines of a near-term descending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly highs with the upper parallel further highlighting near-term resistance ahead of 1575 – look for a reaction here. Failure to mount this threshold leaves the immediate advance vulnerable with a break of the weekly range lows exposing subsequent support objectives at 1562 and 1558. A topside breach from here would be needed to shift the focus higher again targeting critical resistance at 1582/86and the objective monthly open at 1590- a close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

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Bottom line: The gold recovery is testing near-term downtrend resistance here and leaves XAU/USD vulnerable while below 1575. From at trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion while within this formation – ultimately a larger decline may offer more favorable entries closer to trend support. For now, the immediate focus is on a break of the weekly opening-range for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.96 (66.26% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are 1.54% lower than yesterday and 6.51% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 10.18% higher than yesterday and 13.22% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Gold BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -7% 1% -4%
Weekly 1% 19% 7%
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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