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Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Threatens Monthly Range Breakout

Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Threatens Monthly Range Breakout

2019-11-07 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Gold prices are attempting to break a multi-week consolidation pattern with the immediate focus on a key near-term support at 1482. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Price Outlook we noted that XAU/USD had, “reversed sharply off confluence support this week with the advance now eyeing the monthly range highs.” The advance failed late-last week with the decline now testing Fibonacci support at 1482 – a break / close below this threshold would risk a deeper set-back in Gold targeting key support at 1451/61. Monthly open resistance stands at 1512 with a breach / close above 1520/22 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend in XAU/USD.

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of a broad consolidation pattern with the recent pullback now testing confluence support around the 61.8% retracement at 1482- looking for a reaction here.

A downside break keeps the focus on subsequent support objectives at 1472 and 1460/61- an area of interest for near-term downside exhaustion IF reached. Initial resistance at 1495 backed by the weekly open at 1513. Ultimately a breach above 1522 would be needed to validate a topside breakout.

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Bottom line: Gold prices are testing the lower bounds of a multi-week consolidation pattern and we’re looking for a reaction. From a trading standpoint, a good place to lower protective stops. Look for topside exhaustion ahead of 1495 with a break / close below 1482 needed suggest a larger correction is under way / keep the short-bias in play. Review my latest Gold Price Weekly Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.67 (72.76% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are7.54% lower than yesterday and 12.42% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 26.03% higher than yesterday and 1.03% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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