News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/DJccj3qiig
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/UK4E7wD6s8
  • Copper is on track to make a sixth consecutive monthly gain as prices inch towards its all-time high. The global backdrop remains supportive despite a short-term pause in the rally. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/STEYeIG042 https://t.co/R794ENkS3c
  • Retail trader signals still hint that the Dow Jones and S&P 500 may be at risk, placing the focus on year-long rising trendlines to see if dominant upside biases hold.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/lFpzIFNmzW https://t.co/FoHTLDJWJe
  • The path for the Japanese Yen seems to favor the downside looking at a majors-based index. USD/JPY may rise within its Ascending Channel, but there is some scope for a healthy correction. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/7XFJiCYYEM https://t.co/KfLyB2t1jP
  • The British Pound’s recent slip lower against its major counterparts may prove short-lived. Key levels to watch for GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP. Get your $GBP market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/Y48cF2qi9M https://t.co/ia3Bgq0ZTp
  • Senate Democrats reach deal on jobless aid -BBG
  • The US Dollar faces its next key tests against ASEAN FX following gains in USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP and USD/THB. Are the breakouts losing momentum? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/joPnWIcxEN https://t.co/4QAlUyD98V
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 National People's Congress due at 00:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-06
  • Positive vaccine progress, fiscal stimulus hopes and an unperturbed Federal Reserve may open the door for long-term Treasury yields to continue pressing higher, and in turn weigh on gold prices. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/TdGhZ82s8r https://t.co/w6YS6Gl11K
Gold Price Outlook: XAU Breakout - Too Far, Too Fast?

Gold Price Outlook: XAU Breakout - Too Far, Too Fast?

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold prices have surged more than 4.5% off the May lows with the breakout now testing the first major test of resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Daily Price Chart (XAUUSD)

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD Outlook

Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Price Weekly Outlook we noted that the breakout remained, “constructive while above 1275/76 heading into the open of June trade with a weekly close above 1302 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price.” A topside breach / close on Friday validates a breakout of the May opening-range with the advance now testing confluence resistance at 1328/29 – a region defined by the 2019 high-week close and the 78.6% retracement of the year range.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold 240min Price Chart (XAUUSD)

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min - GLD Outlook

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Gold trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the May lows with the upper parallel further highlighting the 1328/29 resistance zone. The immediate advance may be vulnerable below this level, but the trade remains constructive while above the weekly open at 1305. Look for initial support around the 61.8% retracement at 1315. A topside breach of this resistance barrier would keep the focus on subsequent objectives at the yearly high-day close at 1337 and the high-close at 1341 – look for a bigger reaction there If reached.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: The Gold price breakout is testing the first major resistance zone and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable while below 1329. From at trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Risk for possible price exhaustion here but ultimately, we’ll be looking for better long-entries on a pullback. A break / close below 1302 would be needed to put the bears back in control. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Sentiment - GLD Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.67 (62.6% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since February 4th
  • Long positions are7.9% lower than yesterday and 22.3% lower from last week
  • Short positions are32.3% higher than yesterday and 60.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES