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Gold Price Outlook: XAU Offers a Glimmer of Hope at Fresh 2019 Lows

Gold Price Outlook: XAU Offers a Glimmer of Hope at Fresh 2019 Lows

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold prices have plummeted nearly 6% from the yearly high with today’s decline taking prices into multi-month trend support at fresh yearly lows. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Daily Price Chart (XAUUSD)

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Daily - GLD

Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that, “While a break of the monthly opening-range lows does keep the focus lower into the close of April,” price was approaching major support into fresh yearly lows. A break below the 1275/76 support zone was halted today at the August trendline support and leaves the immediate short-bias vulnerable while above this slope.

So, did Gold just bottom? A breach / close back above the yearly opening-range low at 1276 would be needed to alleviate further downside pressure targeting the January trendline (currently ~1285) backed by broader bearish invalidation at the 100-day moving average / monthly open at 1290/92. A downside break would keep the short-bis viable targeting more significant support at 1253/58- a region defined by the 100% extension of the yearly decline and the 50% retracement of the late-2018 advance. Look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold 120min Price Chart (XAUUSD)

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 120minute - GLD

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Gold trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the March / April highs with price responding to confluence support today at the lower parallel. It’s a make-or-break here.

A breach above near-term resistance targets the yearly open at 1280 backed closely by the median-line / 38.2% retracement at 1283 – a rally surpassing this threshold would be needed to shift the near-term focus higher targeting the monthly open & the upper parallels.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: Gold has responded to near-term down-trend support and leave the immediate decline vulnerable while above today’s low. From a trading standpoint, good spot to reduce short-exposure and lower protective stops – be on the lookout for possible exhaustion off this low with a close above 1283 needed to suggest a near-term recover is underway. Continued weakness would keep the focus on 1258. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Positioning
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.68 (72.8% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since April 9th
  • Long positions are6.5% lower than yesterday and 6.6% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 13.2% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold (XAU/USD) price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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